Correlation of severity & clinical outcomes of COVID-19 with virus variants: A prospective, multicentre hospital network study.

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES: The clinical course of COVID-19 and its prognosis are influenced by both viral and host factors. The objectives of this study were to develop a nationwide platform to investigate the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus 2) and correlate the severity and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 with virus variants. METHODS: A nationwide, longitudinal, prospective cohort study was conducted from September 2021 to December 2022 at 14 hospitals across the country that were linked to a viral sequencing laboratory under the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium. All participants (18 yr and above) who attended the hospital with a suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection and tested positive by the reverse transcription-PCR method were included. The participant population consisted of both hospitalized as well as outpatients. Their clinical course and outcomes were studied prospectively. Nasopharyngeal samples collected were subjected to whole genome sequencing to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants. RESULTS: Of the 4972 participants enrolled, 3397 provided samples for viral sequencing and 2723 samples were successfully sequenced. From this, the evolution of virus variants of concern including Omicron subvariants which emerged over time was observed and the same reported here. The mean age of the study participants was 41 yr and overall 49.3 per cent were female. The common symptoms were fever and cough and 32.5 per cent had comorbidities. Infection with the Delta variant evidently increased the risk of severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio: 2.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.52, 4.2), while Omicron was milder independent of vaccination status. The independent risk factors for mortality were age >65 yr, presence of comorbidities and no vaccination. INTERPRETATION CONCLUSIONS: The authors believe that this is a first-of-its-kind study in the country that provides real-time data of virus evolution from a pan-India network of hospitals closely linked to the genome sequencing laboratories. The severity of COVID-19 could be correlated with virus variants with Omicron being the milder variant.

Seasonal variations in social contact patterns in a rural population in north India: Implications for pandemic control.

Social contact mixing patterns are critical to model the transmission of communicable diseases, and have been employed to model disease outbreaks including COVID-19. Nonetheless, there is a paucity of studies on contact mixing in low and middle-income countries such as India. Furthermore, mathematical models of disease outbreaks do not account for the temporal nature of social contacts. We conducted a longitudinal study of social contacts in rural north India across three seasons and analysed the temporal differences in contact patterns. A contact diary survey was performed across three seasons from October 2015-16, in which participants were queried on the number, duration, and characteristics of contacts that occurred on the previous day. A total of 8,421 responses from 3,052 respondents (49% females) recorded characteristics of 180,073 contacts. Respondents reported a significantly higher number and duration of contacts in the winter, followed by the summer and the monsoon season (Nemenyi post-hoc, p<0.001). Participants aged 0-9 years and 10-19 years of age reported the highest median number of contacts (16 (IQR 12-21), 17 (IQR 13-24) respectively) and were found to have the highest node centrality in the social network of the region (pageranks = 0.20, 0.17). A large proportion (>80%) of contacts that were reported in schools or on public transport involved physical contact. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first from India to show that contact mixing patterns vary by the time of the year and provides useful implications for pandemic control. We compared the differences in the number, duration and location of contacts by age-group and gender, and studied the impact of the season, age-group, employment and day of the week on the number and duration of contacts using multivariate negative binomial regression. We created a social network to further understand the age and gender-specific contact patterns, and used the contact matrices in each season to parameterise a nine-compartment agent-based model for simulating a COVID-19 epidemic in each season. Our results can be used to parameterize more accurate mathematical models for prediction of epidemiological trends of infections in rural India.

A quest for universal anti-SARS-CoV-2 T cell assay: systematic review, meta-analysis, and experimental validation.

Measuring SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses is crucial to understanding an individual's immunity to COVID-19. However, high inter- and intra-assay variability make it difficult to define T cells as a correlate of protection against COVID-19. To address this, we performed systematic review and meta-analysis of 495 datasets from 94 original articles evaluating SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses using three assays - Activation Induced Marker (AIM), Intracellular Cytokine Staining (ICS), and Enzyme-Linked Immunospot (ELISPOT), and defined each assay's quantitative range. We validated these ranges using samples from 193 SARS-CoV-2-exposed individuals. Although IFNγ ELISPOT was the preferred assay, our experimental validation suggested that it under-represented the SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell repertoire. Our data indicate that a combination of AIM and ICS or FluoroSpot assay would better represent the frequency, polyfunctionality, and compartmentalization of the antigen-specific T cell responses. Taken together, our results contribute to defining the ranges of antigen-specific T cell assays and propose a choice of assay that can be employed to better understand the cellular immune response against viral diseases.

Clinical and experimental evidence suggest omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is inherently less pathogenic than delta variant independent of previous immunity.

OBJECTIVES: To study clinical disease outcomes in both human and animal models to understand the pathogenicity of omicron compared to the delta variant. METHODS: In this cross-sectional observational study, clinical outcomes of adults who tested positive at 2 testing centres in Delhi National Capital Region between January 2022 and March 2022 (omicron-infected; N = 2998) were compared to a similar geographical cohort (delta-infected; N = 3292). In addition, disease course and outcomes were studied in SARS-CoV-2-infected golden Syrian hamsters and K-18 humanized ACE2 transgenic mice. RESULTS: Omicron variant infection was associated with a milder clinical course [83% (95% CI 61, 94) reduced risk of severity compared against delta] adjusting for vaccination, age, sex, prior infection and occupational risk. This correlated with lower disease index and vir comparing omicron with other variants in animal models. CONCLUSIONS: Infections caused by the omicron variant were milder compared to those caused by the delta variant independent of previous immunity.

Trends of humoral immune responses to heterologous antigenic exposure due to vaccination & omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection: Implications for boosting.

Background & objectives: Vaccination and natural infection can both augment the immune responses against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but how omicron infection has affected the vaccine-induced and hybrid immunity is not well studied in Indian population. The present study was aimed to assess the durability and change in responses of humoral immunity with age, prior natural infection, vaccine type and duration with a minimum gap of six months post-two doses with either ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BBV152 prior- and post-emergence of the omicron variant. Methods: A total of 1300 participants were included in this observational study between November 2021 and May 2022. Participants had completed at least six months after vaccination (2 doses) with either ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or an inactivated whole virus vaccine BBV152. They were grouped according to their age (≤ or ≥60 yr) and prior exposure of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Five hundred and sixteen of these participants were followed up after emergence of the Omicron variant. The main outcome was durability and augmentation of the humoral immune response as determined by anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations, anti-nucleocapsid antibodies and anti-omicron RBD antibodies. Live virus neutralization assay was conducted for neutralizing antibodies against four variants - ancestral, delta and omicron and omicron sublineage BA.5. Results: Before the omicron surge, serum anti-RBD IgG antibodies were detected in 87 per cent participants after a median gap of eight months from the second vaccine dose, with a median titre of 114 [interquartile range (IQR) 32, 302] BAU/ml. The levels increased to 594 (252, 1230) BAU/ml post-omicron surge (P<0.001) with 97 per cent participants having detectable antibodies, although only 40 had symptomatic infection during the omicron surge irrespective of vaccine type and previous history of infection. Those with prior natural infection and vaccination had higher anti-RBD IgG titre at baseline, which increased further [352 (IQR 131, 869) to 816 (IQR 383, 2001) BAU/ml] (P<0.001). The antibody levels remained elevated after a mean time gap of 10 months, although there was a decline of 41 per cent. The geometric mean titre was 452.54, 172.80, 83.1 and 76.99 against the ancestral, delta, omicron and omicron BA.5 variants in the live virus neutralization assay. Interpretation & conclusions: Anti-RBD IgG antibodies were detected in 85 per cent of participants after a median gap of eight months following the second vaccine dose. Omicron infection probably resulted in a substantial proportion of asymptomatic infection in the first four months in our study population and boosted the vaccine-induced humoral immune response, which declined but still remained durable over 10 months.

Severity and mortality associated with COVID-19 among children hospitalised in tertiary care centres in India: a cohort study.

Background: It is critical to identify high-risk groups among children with COVID-19 from low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to facilitate the optimum use of health system resources. The study aims to describe the severity and mortality of different clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 in a large cohort of children admitted to tertiary care hospitals in India. Methods: Children aged 0-19 years with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection (real time polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen test positive) or exposure (anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, or history of contact with SARS-CoV-2) were enrolled in the study, between January 2021 and March 2022 across five tertiary hospitals in India. All study participants enrolled prospectively and retrospectively were followed up for three months after discharge. COVID-19 was classified into severe (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), severe acute COVID-19, 'unclassified') or non-severe disease. The mortality rates were estimated in different phenotypes. Findings: Among 2468 eligible children enrolled, 2148 were hospitalised. Signs of illness were present in 1688 (79%) children with 1090 (65%) having severe disease. High mortality was reported in MIS-C (18.6%), severe acute COVID-19 (13.3%) and the unclassified severe COVID-19 disease (12.3%). Mortality remained high (17.5%) when modified MIS-C criteria was used. Non-severe COVID-19 disease had 14.1% mortality when associated with comorbidity. Interpretation: Our findings have important public health implications for low resource settings. The high mortality underscores the need for better preparedness for timely diagnosis and management of COVID-19. Children with associated comorbidity or coinfections are a vulnerable group and need special attention. MIS-C requires context specific diagnostic criteria for low resource settings. It is important to evaluate the clinical, epidemiological and health system-related risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 and mortality in children from LMICs. Funding: Department of Biotechnology, Govt of India and Department of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health and Aging, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.

Ancestral SARS-CoV-2-Driven Antibody Repertoire Diversity in an Unvaccinated Individual Correlates with Expanded Neutralization Breadth.

Understanding the quality of immune repertoire triggered during natural infection can provide vital clues that form the basis for development of a humoral immune response in some individuals capable of broadly neutralizing pan-SARS-CoV-2 variants. In the present study, we report variations in neutralization potential against Omicron variants of two novel neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (MAbs), THSC20.HVTR11 and THSC20.HVTR55, isolated from an unvaccinated convalescent individual that represent distinct B cell lineage origins and epitope specificity compared to five MAbs we previously reported that were isolated from the same individual. In addition, we observed neutralization of Omicron variants by plasma antibodies obtained from this particular individual postvaccination with increased magnitude. Interestingly, this observation was found to be comparable with six additional individuals who initially were also infected with ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and then received vaccines, indicating that hybrid immunity can provide robust humoral immunity likely by antibody affinity maturation. Development of a distinct antigen-specific B cell repertoire capable of producing polyclonal antibodies with distinct affinity and specificities offers the highest probability of protecting against evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants. IMPORTANCE Development of robust neutralizing antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 convalescent individuals is known; however, it varies at the population level. We isolated monoclonal antibodies from an individual infected with ancestral SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020 that not only varied in their B cell lineage origin but also varied in their capability and potency to neutralize all the known variants of concern (VOCs) and currently circulating Omicron variants. This indicated establishment of unique lineages that contributed in forming a B cell repertoire in this particular individual immediately following infection, giving rise to diverse antibody responses that could complement each other in providing a broadly neutralizing polyclonal antibody response. Individuals who were able to produce polyclonal antibody responses with higher magnitude have a higher chance of being protected from evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Sub-optimal neutralisation of omicron (B.1.1.529) variant by antibodies induced by vaccine alone or SARS-CoV-2 Infection plus vaccine (hybrid immunity) post 6-months.

BACKGROUND: Rapid spread of the omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant despite extensive vaccination suggests immune escape. The neutralising ability of different vaccines alone or with natural SARS-CoV-2 infection against omicron is not well-known. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we tested the ability of vaccine and natural infection induced antibodies to neutralise omicron variant in a live virus neutralisation assay in four groups of individuals: (i) ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination, (ii) ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination plus prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, (iii) vaccination with inactivated virus vaccine (BBV152), and (iv) BBV152 vaccination plus prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary outcome was fold-change in virus neutralisation titre against omicron compared with ancestral virus. FINDINGS: We included 80 subjects. The geometric mean titre (GMT) of the 50% focus reduction neutralisation test (FRNT50) was 380·4 (95% CI: 221·1, 654·7) against the ancestral virus with BBV152 vaccination and 379·3 (95% CI: 185·6, 775·2) with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccination alone. GMT for vaccination plus infection groups were 806·1 (95% CI: 478·5, 1357·8) and 1526·2 (95% CI: 853·2, 2730·0), respectively. Against omicron variant, only 5 out of 20 in both BBV152 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine only groups, 6 out of 20 in BBV152 plus prior SARS-CoV-2 infection group, and 9 out of 20 in ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 plus prior SARS-CoV-2 infection group exhibited neutralisation titres above the lower limit of quantification (1:20) suggesting better neutralisation with prior infection. A reduction of 26·6 and 25·7 fold in FRNT50 titres against Omicron compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain was observed for individuals without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection vaccinated with BBV152 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, respectively. The corresponding reduction was 57·1 and 58·1 fold, respectively, for vaccinated individuals with prior infection. The 50% neutralisation titre against omicron demonstrated moderate correlation with serum anti-RBD IgG levels [Spearman r: 0·58 (0·41, 0·71)]. INTERPRETATION: Significant reduction in the neutralising ability of both vaccine-induced and vaccine plus infection-induced antibodies was observed for omicron variant which might explain immune escape. FUNDING: Department of Biotechnology, India; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USA.

Development of a Fast SARS-CoV-2 IgG ELISA, Based on Receptor-Binding Domain, and Its Comparative Evaluation Using Temporally Segregated Samples From RT-PCR Positive Individuals.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection assays are crucial for gathering seroepidemiological information and monitoring the sustainability of antibody response against the virus. The SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein's receptor-binding domain (RBD) is a very specific target for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detection. Moreover, many neutralizing antibodies are mapped to this domain, linking antibody response to RBD with neutralizing potential. Detection of IgG antibodies, rather than IgM or total antibodies, against RBD is likely to play a larger role in understanding antibody-mediated protection and vaccine response. Here we describe a rapid and stable RBD-based IgG ELISA test obtained through extensive optimization of the assay components and conditions. The test showed a specificity of 99.79% (95% CI: 98.82-99.99%) in a panel of pre-pandemic samples (n = 470) from different groups, i.e., pregnancy, fever, HCV, HBV, and autoantibodies positive. Test sensitivity was evaluated using sera from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive individuals (n = 312) and found to be 53.33% (95% CI: 37.87-68.34%), 80.47% (95% CI: 72.53-86.94%), and 88.24% (95% CI: 82.05-92.88%) in panel 1 (days 0-13), panel 2 (days 14-20) and panel 3 (days 21-27), respectively. Higher sensitivity was achieved in symptomatic individuals and reached 92.14% (95% CI: 86.38-96.01%) for panel 3. Our test, with a shorter runtime, showed higher sensitivity than parallelly tested commercial ELISAs for SARS-CoV-2-IgG, i.e., Euroimmun and Zydus, even when equivocal results in the commercial ELISAs were considered positive. None of the tests, which are using different antigens, could detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgGs in 10.5% RT-PCR positive individuals by the fourth week, suggesting the lack of IgG response.

Effectiveness of a Quality Improvement Program Using Difference-in-Difference Analysis for Home Based Newborn Care - Results of a Community Intervention Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To present evaluation of a quality improvement program for Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs). METHODS: This community intervention trial was conducted in Ballabgarh, India during 2012-2014 with two Primary Health Center (PHC) areas being the intervention areas and two PHC areas being non-intervention areas receiving standard care. Interventions included two-day training in technical and communication skills of ASHAs followed by supportive supervision in the field. Intervention was evaluated by comparing pre and post training scores, feedback from postnatal mothers and a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis on baseline and endline knowledge-practice survey of recently delivered mothers with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Only 11.1% ASHAs addressed specific barriers for adopting healthy behaviors. Sixty eight (91.8%) ASHAs attended the training after which knowledge improved by 33.3% (p < 0.001). ASHAs in intervention areas were rated by mothers (n = 69) to have better communication skills (81.2% vs. 59.7%, p = 0.005), make more postnatal visits (52.2% vs. 22.2%; p < 0.001), give advice on newborn care (64% vs. 50.5%; p < 0.001) as compared to standard care area ASHAs. Endline survey (n = 1360) showed a significant improvement in frequency of antenatal visits (0.26;0.19-0.33), knowledge about free transport (0.12;0.05-0.18), better cord-care practices (0.15;0.07-0.22), kangaroo mother care (0.19;0.13-0.25), delayed first bath (0.13;0.06-0.20), restrictive handling (0.11;0.06-0.15) and hand-washing (0.19;0.13-0.25). CONCLUSIONS: Quality improvement program can help improve ASHA's performance which in turn can address higher neonatal mortality in India.

Who interacts with whom? Social mixing insights from a rural population in India.

Acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with most ALRI deaths occurring in children in developing countries. Computational models can be used to test the efficacy of respiratory infection prevention interventions, but require data on social mixing patterns, which are sparse in developing countries. We describe social mixing patterns among a rural community in northern India. During October 2015-February 2016, trained field workers conducted cross-sectional face-to-face standardized surveys in a convenience sample of 330 households in Faridabad District, Haryana State, India. Respondents were asked about the number, duration, and setting of social interactions during the previous 24 hours. Responses were compared by age and gender. Among the 3083 residents who were approached, 2943 (96%) participated, of whom 51% were male and the median age was 22 years (interquartile range (IQR) 9-37). Respondents reported contact (defined as having had a face-to-face conversation within 3 feet, which may or may not have included physical contact) with a median of 17 (IQR 12-25) people during the preceding 24 hours. Median total contact time per person was 36 person-hours (IQR 26-52). Female older children and adults had significantly fewer contacts than males of similar age (Kruskal-Wallis χ2 = 226.59, p<0.001), but spent a longer duration in contact with young children (Kruskal-Wallis χ2 = 27.26, p<0.001), suggesting a potentially complex pattern of differential risk of infection between genders. After controlling for household size and day of the week, respondent age was significantly associated with number and duration of contacts. These findings can be used to model the impact of interventions to reduce lower respiratory tract infections in India.

Reduction of Neonatal Mortality Requires Strengthening of the Health System: A Situational Analysis of Neonatal Care Services in Ballabgarh.

Background: Planning a comprehensive program addressing neonatal mortality will require a detailed situational analysis of available neonatal-specific health infrastructure. Methods: We identified facilities providing essential and sick neonatal care (ENC, SNC) by a snowballing technique in Ballabgarh Block. These were assessed for infrastructure, human resource and equipment along with self-rated competency of the staff and compared with facility-based or population-based norms. Results: A total of 35 facilities providing ENC and 10 facilities for SNC were identified. ENC services were largely in the public-sector domain (68.5% of births) and were well distributed in the block. SNC burden was largely being borne by the private sector (66% of admissions), which was urban-based. The private sector and nurses reported lower competency especially for SNC. Only 53.9% of government facilities and 17.5% of private facilities had a fully equipped newborn care corner. Conclusions: Serious efforts to reduce neonatal mortality would require major capacity strengthening of the health system, including that of the private sector.